This year’s Best Picture race at the 2025 Oscars is still too close to call. A week before the Oscars, the top two betting favorites are “Anora” and “The Brutalist,” with “Conclave” not far behind in third place. Other nominees for Best Picture this year include “A Complete Unknown,” “Emilia Perez,” “Wicked,” “The Substance,” “The Nickel Boys,” “Dune: Part Two,” “I’m Still Here.” You can find all the nominees and their odds on Kalshi.
Best Picture Odds
| Best Picture | Kalshi Odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | 61% | -200 |
| Conclave | 25% | +225 |
| The Brutalist | 14% | +600 |
“Oppenheimer” was an overwhelming favorite at last year’s Academy Awards and easily won Best Picture. Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece had a massive budget of $100 million, which is nearly three times as much as this year’s top three favorites combined.
Anora
Anora is a postmodern Cinderella story about a sex worker (Mikey Madison – Oscars 2025 Best Actress Odds favorite.) from Brooklyn who falls in love and elopes to Las Vegas with the drug-addled son (Mark Eydelshtey) of a Russian oligarch. Their fairy tale life together unravels when the parents seek an annulment, and hilarity ensues.
Kalshi currently lists Anora as a 61% favorite to win Best Picture, which is approximately priced at -155 odds. Anora was as low as 17% a month ago, or +480 odds, but has emerged as the favorite after picking up victories at the Producers Guild Awards (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), and Critics Choice Awards. It also won the coveted Palme d’Or at Cannes.
At the Indie Spirit Awards, hosted one week before the Oscars in Santa Monica, Anora won three categories, including Best Feature, Best Director, and Best Lead Performance for Mikey Madison.
Anora is the consensus Best Picture favorite at major sportsbooks at -200 odds. Anora is the favorite at 9/2 odds to win Best Picture, according to Gold Derby, which is a popular site for Oscars predictions by many Hollywood insiders.
The Brutalist
A Hungarian-Jewish Holocaust survivor and visionary architect (Adrien Brody – current Oscars Best Actor 2025 Odds favorite) relocates to America after escaping postwar Europe. He’s a stranger in a strange new land who attempts to rebuild his life, his career, and his marriage while harboring a secret addiction.
Brady Corbert’s film clocks in at over 3.5 hours and includes an intermission for theatrical viewings. Despite the lengthy run time, “The Brutalist” earned 10 Oscar nominations. It was an early favorite to win numerous awards after securing three victories at the Golden Globes, including Best Picture.
The controversial film drew initial criticism from the architectural world, who strongly felt that director Brady Corbet’s depictions of the profession were inaccurate. Historians also felt that the film presented a misunderstanding of Brutalist architecture.
One week before the Oscars, The Brutalist is now at an all-time low at Kalshi at 13%, which is approximately +670 odds. The Brutalist recently dropped to third overall at 7/1 odds, according to Gold Derby.
Conclave
Conclave is a political thriller based on Robert Harris’ novel about the election of a new pope. After the pope unexpectedly dies, the College of Cardinals gathers in secret to select a new pope. The film is now in the zeitgeist as a compelling part of current events with the recent news of an ailing Pope Francis.
Conclave earned eight nominations at the Oscars. Filmed on location in Italy, Conclave resonates better with older Oscar voters. It is beautifully shot and easier to digest than the sexually charged, raw realism of Anora, or The Brutalist’s isolationist style, which might be too off-putting. Conclave is also a popular option if voters are turned off by The Brutalist’s AI controversy.
Conclave won Best Film at the BAFTA awards. Conclave is now 13/2 odds at Gold Derby. Conclave was as low as 4% on Kalshi but is now trading at an all-time high at 24%.
A Complete Unknown
A Complete Unknown, directed by James Mangold, has been well received by Bob Dylan fans. The biopic focuses on Dylan (Timothée Chalamet) in the early 1960s, from his arrival in New York City leading up to his controversial performance at the Newport Music Festival in 1965.
A Complete Unknown was considered a dark horse to win Best Picture a month earlier before Conclave’s recent surge. A Complete Unknown is 9/1 odds to win Best Picture at Gold Derby, tied for fourth overall with Wicked.
Wicked
Wicked is an origin story about the friendship between the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch before the arrival of Dorothy in the Land of Oz.
Wicked is tied for fourth overall to win Best Picture at Gold Derby at 9/1 odds, yet it doesn’t have a legitimate chance to pull off an upset. With 10 overall nominations this year, Wicked should garner a couple of victories in other technical categories. Kalshi has Wicked at 89% to win Costume Design and at 78% to win Production Design.
Emilia Perez
What a difference one month makes. Emilia Perez, a musical about a cartel boss (Karla Sofía Gascon) who wants to retire and transition into living as a woman, earned 13 nominations for the 2025 Academy Awards.
A backlash occurred after controversial social media posts surfaced from Gascon. Netflix and the producers removed Gascon from their “For Your Consideration” campaigns to mitigate damage to the film’s other contenders, especially Zoe Salanda for Best ing Actress. However, the recent drama surrounding the film has drastically altered the betting markets for Best Picture. Emilia Perez dropped to sixth overall at Gold Derby at 11/1 odds. Only two weeks ago, Emilia Perez was the second favorite on the board at +340 odds to win Best Picture. Their odds have since bottomed out at +6600.
Emilia Perez’s catchy song “El Mal” is the favorite to clinch an Oscar for Best Song with a 75% chance to win, according to Kalshi. Meanwhile, Emilia Perez is no longer the favorite to win Best International Feature when their chances slipped to 44%. The Brazilian film, “I’m Still Here,” is the new frontrunner at 57%.
