Oscars 2025 – Best Actress Odds
The pursuit for Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars has been a back-and-forth race between Demi Moore from “The Substance” and Mikey Madison from “Anora.” Madison made a late surge with a surprise victory at the BAFTA Awards and a huge win at the Indie Spirit Awards, before Moore bounced back by winning Best Actress at the SAG Awards in L.A. one week before the Oscars. The momentum swung back in Moore’s favor and she’s the betting favorite according to most Oscars prediction markets, like Kalshi.
| 2025 Oscars Best Actress | Kalshi | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | 65% | -250 |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | 31% | +175 |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | 5% | +1400 |
One year earlier, Lily Gladstone won most of the major awards for Best Actress heading into the 2024 Oscars. Emma Stone, who was a slight underdog, won Best Actress in the only major upset last year. Will the underdog prevail again with Madison, or will the Academy recognize a bona fide movie star in Moore for her best performance in decades?
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Moore plays an aging Hollywood star and aerobics show host, Elizabeth Sparkle, who desperately wants to retain her fame by injecting a secret serum in The Substance. The horror-comedy is a scathing critique on ageism, beauty standards, and the commodification of women’s bodies in Hollywood. It was the perfect role for Moore, who absolutely crushed her transformative performance. Due to the incendiary nature of the film’s social commentary, many insiders were skeptical that Hollywood would embrace The Substance. That’s why Moore’s surprise win for Best Actress at the Golden Globes was a serendipitous moment.
The Academy often embraces nostalgia and loves a comeback story, so a veteran thespian like Moore could finally get overdue recognition for her career work. It’s a very similar situation to Jamie Lee Curtis at the 2023 Oscars with her nomination and subsequent win for Best ing Actress. Will Academy voters honor a big star once again?
Moore was a part of the “Brat Pack” group of budding stars in the 1980s before she became one of the highest paid actresses in Hollywood in the 1990s. As she grew older, her opportunity for juicy roles diminished because Hollywood is reluctant to cast actresses once they turn 40-plus. The Substance was an ideal match for Moore because she had the experience and gravitas to bring her character to life on the big screen.
Before her coup at the Golden Globes, Moore was an astronomical moon shot to win Best Actress at 4% according to Kalshi. She jumped to 32% after her victory. By the end of January, she caught up to Madison and both were tied at 44%. After earning more accolades in February, Moore seized the lead and was the new betting favorite at the Oscars.
Moore’s market price dipped at Kalshi when she lost at the BAFTAs and at the Indie Spirit Awards. However, she bounced right back and achieved a new market high after securing the SAG Award. Moore is currently 65% at Kalshi, which translates to -185 odds on the moneyline.
Moore is the consensus favorite at sportsbooks at -250 odds, but was only -150 at the beginning of February. Moore is the 2/1 favorite to win Best Actress according to Gold Debry, which is a popular prediction market for Hollywood insiders.
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Madison was a tour de force for her performance in Anora as a sex worker in a modern-day version of Cinderella. Anora is really three different movies rolled into one. In the first act, Madison spends a lot of time naked while dancing in a strip club. Madison truly shines in the second act during the home invasion scene, that mixes both action and comedy. The third act is bittersweet and emotionally charged as the Russian parents of her drug-addled new husband do everything in their power to annul their marriage.
Just when it looked like Moore would easily win the Oscar, Madison stunned the industry when she won Best Actress at the BAFTA Awards. Madison added another Best Actress victory when Anora picked up three category victories at the Indie Spirit Awards including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress for Madison.
Heading into the Golden Globes, Madison appeared as a huge favorite according to Kalshi. Her chances to win at the Oscars were around 64% before Moore’s upset victory. With Moore garnering all of the attention, Madison’s market bottomed out at 13% before her surprise win at the BAFTAs. She continued to ride a wave of momentum after her win at the Indie Spirit Awards, which shook up the prediction markets. Her chances at Kalshi sured 51% and she surged ahead of Moore. However, her chances quickly diminished after a loss at the SAG Awards. Madison currently has a 31% chance to win according to Kalshi, which is approximately +225 odds on the moneyline.
Madison was a betting favorite at -200 odds heading into the Golden Globes before her price dropped after Moore’s victory. Madison saw her odds improve to +130 odds after her BAFTA win, but she is currently +175 odds at most sportsbooks. Madison is 3/1 to win Best Actress according to Gold Derby.
