2025 is shaping up to be another big year for movies. With the casting for The Beatles’ biopic being announced, and flicks like the much-anticipated Minecraft Movie and the latest Mission: Impossible installment due to be released, film buffs are waiting with bated breath for the reviews to roll in.
One scoring platform in particular has many of us in a chokehold: Rotten Tomatoes.
So, how does it work? Put simply, the iconic “Tomatometer” is a collection of hundreds of opinions, and according to the platform, “serves as a trusted measurement of critical entertainment recommendation for millions of fans.” In tomatoes, we trust.
In of what makes a good Rotten Tomatoes score, any film or TV show that has at least 60% positive reviews is considered “fresh” and receives a red tomato symbol. Anything where less than 60% of the reviews are positive is well and truly rotten. We don’t make up the rules…
So, what’s the verdict? Which blockbusters are heading to the top of the Tomatometer® in 2025? Which flicks look more rotten than anything else? The Kalshi bets are in…
Rotten Tomatoes Movie Score Predictions above 75%
| Film | Implied Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Warfare | 96% | -1567 |
| Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | 94% | -2400 |
| The Amateur | 41% | +144 |
| A Minecraft Movie | 6% | +1567 |
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Warfare Clinging to First Place
Long-running favourite to receive the highest Rotten Tomatoes score on Kalshi is A24’s Warfare, which is due to be released on April 11th in the US and 18th in the UK.
The action film, which follows a gritty of a US special forces mission gone wrong, has been sitting at the top of the Tomatometer for the last month, but now, it could soon be overshadowed by other highly anticipated movies, including a certain Tom Cruise flick…
Early Rotten Tomatoes reviews are dubbing it “the most realistic war movie ever made” and “difficult to watch,” which are some impressive claims, but may put off some of the more squeamish theatre goers. However, overall, many critics are praising Mendoza and Garland for creating an incredibly important and unmissable movie. So, how long will Warfare stay in the top spot?
Tom Cruise on a Mission for a High Score
New in this week at second place, and already closing in on the top of the predictions tables on Kalshi at -2400 is Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Despite this being the eighth – yes eighth – installment in the Mission: Impossible series, it seems that we still can’t get enough of Tom Cruise saving the day, which is why early reviews are already pinning the movie as a top scorer on Rotten Tomatoes.
The $400 million budget spy film, which is due to be released this May, will be the direct sequel to Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (2023), although there’s been some ambiguity as to whether or not this is the final ever film in the series.
According to People, “though The Final Reckoning will conclude the events set up in the last film, director Christopher McQuarrie is careful to say whether or not this will be the final Mission: Impossible movie.”
“It is, I hope, the satisfying conclusion to a 30-year story arc,” he told Empire in February 2025. “I’m pretty confident that people are going to feel that the title was appropriate.” If this is indeed the final ever mission, it’s easy to see why the movie is set to receive some high scores. We’re certainly on the edge of our seats…
Could it Soon Be Amateur Hour?
Another strong contender for receiving a fresh Rotten Tomatoes score is The Amateur, which sits at +144 on Kalshi.
The new thriller starring Rami Malek, is a remake of the 1981 movie (of the same name), which is based on a novel by Robert Littell. The story follows a CIA decoder, who is on a blackmail pursuit to avenge his late wife.
Since there is already much lore to compare the remake to, the new adaptation will no doubt be under a lot of scrutiny from critics and movie buffs alike.
A Minecraft Movie Building its Rating Brick by Brick
One for the younger viewers now, also in the running to do incredibly well at the box office this year, is A Minecraft Movie, which is set to hit theatres this April 2025.
The film will showcase the Minecraft world in a whole new light, as four misfits get pulled into the magical and mysterious ‘cubic wonderland’ to try and make their way home, encountering many challenges and unexpected characters (including kids movie legend, Jack Black) along the way.
Considering the video game’s cult following amongst kids and teens, it’s no surprise to see why the movie has a probability of +1567 to be above 75% on Kalshi.
Plus, judging the history of success of films of this nature (see the Jumanji reboots and Sonic the Hedgehog franchise if you need any proof), we expect big things for the Minecraft flick.
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This means that wagering on hypothetical outcomes on Kalshi is as safe as wagers on sportsbooks like FanDuel.
